The
pollution reductions needed to stave off the worst effects of global
warming can be achieved—if governments act now, according to a major
consensus report released today by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC is a United Nations body charged with
assessing the scientific record on global warming.
“Delayed
emission reductions lead to investments that lock in more
emission-intensive infrastructure and development pathways. This
significantly constrains the opportunities to achieve lower [greenhouse
gas] stabilization levels and increases the risk of more severe climate
impacts,” the report states.
“This report provides a roadmap
on how to avoid the worst effects of global warming, but we have to
start moving now,” said Erik Magnuson program associate for Environment
Arizona. “The sooner we act, the sooner we start improving energy
security, creating jobs, and protecting future generations from the
worst effects of global warming,” Magnuson added.
The report
finds that already available energy efficiency and renewable energy
technologies could substantially reduce global warming pollution, while
improving energy security, reducing air pollution, and creating jobs.
Taken together with the second volume of the IPCC’s report, released in
April, it also finds that it is cheaper to prevent dangerous global
warming than to deal with its consequences.
The document
released today, entitled “Mitigation of Climate Change,” is the Summary
for Policymakers of the third volume of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment
Report. Major findings include the following:
• Pollution
Will Skyrocket Unless Governments Act: Global emissions are projected
to rise by 25-90% over 2000 levels by 2030, unless policies are adopted
to reduce emissions.
• Still Possible to Avoid Dangerous Global
Warming: To prevent dangerous global warming (as documented in the
second volume of the IPCC’s report), global emissions would need to
peak no later than 2015 and then decline by as much as 50% by 2050,
thereby limiting the global average temperature increase to about 2°C
over pre-industrial levels (which is equivalent to 3.6°F, or about 2°F
over today’s levels). This level of reduction “can be achieved by
deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available
today and those that are expected to be commercialized in coming
decades.” While not specified in today’s release, the U.S. must reduce
its emissions by at least 80% by 2050 to meet the global target of
about 50% reductions, given our greater contribution to the problem.
•
Action Cheaper than Inaction: Stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations at relatively safe levels will cost less than 3% of
expected economic growth by 2030 (less than 0.12% per year). Costs
would be lower if carbon permits are auctioned and the revenue is
invested in energy efficiency and the development of new, clean energy
technologies. The former chief economist of the World Bank, Sir
Nicholas Stern, has put the price of unmitigated warming at as high as
20% of global GDP by 2100.
• Vast Potential for Energy
Efficiency: Energy efficiency in vehicles and buildings could
significantly reduce global warming emissions “ with net economic
benefit” and with “large co-benefits,” but “many barriers exist
against tapping this potential.” The co-benefits include improved
energy security, job creation, lower costs, and reduced air pollution.
•
Vast Potential for Renewable Energy: “Given costs relative to other
supply options, renewable electricity…can have a 30-35% share of the
total electricity supply in 2030….” “Renewable energy generally has a
positive effect on energy security, employment, and on air quality.”
•
Reducing Global Warming Pollution Can Improve Health: “[N]ear-term
health co-benefits from reduced air pollution as a result of actions to
reduce [greenhouse gas] emissions can be substantial and may offset a
substantial fraction of mitigation costs.”
• Voluntary Action
Ineffective: “The majority of [voluntary] agreements has not achieved
significant emissions reductions beyond business as usual.”
“There
are already bills in Congress that follow the prescriptions in this
report – namely the Safe Climate Act in the House and the Global
Warming Pollution Reduction Act in the Senate,” added Magnuson “These
bills would reduce U.S. global warming pollution by 80% by 2050 by
requiring improvements in energy efficiency and increased use of
renewable energy like wind, solar, and geothermal,” he said.
A
final synthesis of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report is due out later
this year. The full Fourth Assessment Report includes input from more
than 2,500 experts worldwide.
The previous two volumes,
released earlier this year, concluded that (1) global warming is
“unequivocal;” (2) burning fossil fuels and other human activities are
responsible for most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century; (3) the impacts are already
evident worldwide and will worsen significantly, with increasing
droughts, floods, heat waves, water stress, forest fires, and coastal
flooding in store for the U.S.; but that (4) “many impacts can be
avoided, reduced, or delayed” by quickly and substantially reducing
global warming pollution.
The IPCC was established by the
United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological
Organization in 1988 with a mandate to assess the state of knowledge on
global warming on a “comprehensive, objective, open and transparent
basis” and to generate documents that reflect a consensus among those
involved. In 1990, 1995, and 2001, the IPCC issued its prior
assessments.
Magnuson also noted that the report is inherently
conservative because it reflects the consensus of hundreds of parties,
including industry groups and governments opposed to taking action to
reduce global warming pollution.
